Original data
The same grocery staple swings 50% week to week
By CartIQ · We have read Canadian grocery flyers twice a week since April 2026 and keep every price we find, which is what makes this comparison possible.
Updated August 30, 2026 · 14 weeks of flyer data · 31 Canadian chains
How much do Canadian grocery prices change week to week?
The median staple costs 50% more in its dearest week than in its cheapest. The range across the 18 staples we track runs from 10% at the steady end to 140% at the volatile end.
Each figure is the median advertised flyer price for that staple in a given week, compared across every week we hold. The swing is the gap between its cheapest week and its dearest.
| Staple | Cheapest week | Dearest week | Swing | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🍎 Apples | $2.49 | $5.97 | 140% | 11 |
| 🫒 Olive oil | $8.99 | $21.49 | 139% | 12 |
| ☕ Coffee | $8.49 | $16.98 | 100% | 14 |
| 🍗 Chicken breast | $6.77 | $12.99 | 92% | 14 |
| 🍝 Pasta | $2.97 | $5.27 | 77% | 14 |
| 🍚 Rice | $7.88 | $13.49 | 71% | 14 |
| 🥚 Eggs | $4.99 | $7.99 | 60% | 9 |
| 🥣 Yogurt | $3.79 | $5.97 | 58% | 14 |
| 🥦 Broccoli | $2.00 | $2.99 | 50% | 8 |
| 🧃 Orange juice | $4.99 | $7.24 | 45% | 11 |
| 🧀 Cheese | $5.00 | $6.99 | 40% | 14 |
| 🥓 Pork chops | $3.99 | $5.49 | 38% | 10 |
| 🧈 Butter | $4.98 | $6.50 | 31% | 13 |
| 🍞 Bread | $3.47 | $4.49 | 29% | 14 |
| 🥔 Potatoes | $3.99 | $5.00 | 25% | 13 |
| 🥩 Ground beef | $7.98 | $9.99 | 25% | 14 |
| 🥛 Milk | $5.00 | $6.22 | 25% | 14 |
| 🐟 Salmon | $9.97 | $11.00 | 10% | 14 |
Median advertised flyer price per ISO week, 31 chains, 11 regions. Weeks with fewer than 40 observations for a staple are excluded so a thin week cannot set a record high or low.
Which grocery items should you wait to buy on sale?
Buy apples, olive oil, coffee, chicken breast, pasta only when they are near their low. These five swing hardest and all of them store for months, which is what makes stocking up on them worth the shelf space:
- Apples, 140% ($2.49 to $5.97). Typical week: $3.44.
- Olive oil, 139% ($8.99 to $21.49). Typical week: $12.98.
- Coffee, 100% ($8.49 to $16.98). Typical week: $13.99.
- Chicken breast, 92% ($6.77 to $12.99). Typical week: $9.24.
- Pasta, 77% ($2.97 to $5.27). Typical week: $3.39.
Put concretely: if you always bought apples in its cheap week rather than its expensive one, you would pay $2.49 instead of $5.97 for a comparable pack. No coupon, no loyalty card, no second store.
Which grocery items are not worth waiting for?
Do not bother timing salmon, potatoes, ground beef. They barely move, so the saving is not there and the waiting costs you attention you could spend on the items that do swing:
- Salmon, 10% ($9.97 to $11.00).
- Potatoes, 25% ($3.99 to $5.00).
- Ground beef, 25% ($7.98 to $9.99).
Milk sitting near the bottom at 25% is a useful check on the method. Canadian dairy is supply managed, so the farm gate price is set by regulation rather than by the market, and a stable advertised price is exactly what you would expect. When an early version of this analysis showed milk swinging four fold, that was a fault in our data rather than a finding, and we fixed it before publishing.
Is it cheaper to switch stores or wait for a sale?
Wait for the sale. Comparisons between Canadian grocers usually land within a few dollars on a full basket, and our own basket study puts No Frills, Walmart and Food Basics within $1.93 of each other across 20 staples. A single staple swinging 50% dwarfs that gap.
A single staple swinging 50% dwarfs that. The store you choose sets a baseline; the week you buy sets the price. This is why stocking up on a shelf-stable item at its low is the highest-leverage grocery habit there is, and why chasing a store that is 2% cheaper on average is mostly wasted effort.
Where does this grocery price data come from?
CartIQ reads the flyer feeds for 31 Canadian grocery chains twice a week and stores every matching item with its price, merchant, region and capture time. This article is generated from that database and rewrites itself as new weeks land, so the numbers above are current rather than a snapshot of the day it was written.
Three limits worth stating plainly. These are advertised flyer prices, not shelf prices and not what anyone paid at the till. Package sizes differ between retailers, so a staple figure describes a category rather than one identical product. And items are matched to a staple by a classifier, which is deliberately strict: chocolate milk, coconut milk and condensed milk are not counted as milk, because early on they were, and they made the milk figure meaningless.
This is also not an inflation measure. Statistics Canada's Consumer Price Index tracks what a fixed basket costs at the till each month and is built to show the underlying trend. We track what flyers advertise each week, which moves far more because promotional depth is itself the variable. The two answer different questions: CPI tells you whether groceries cost more this year, this tells you whether to buy chicken this week or next.
Data runs from 2026-05-29 to 2026-08-30, covering 14 weeks and 43,816 classified price records.
Frequently asked questions
How much do Canadian grocery prices change from week to week?
A lot more than most people expect. Across 18 staples tracked in Canadian flyers, the median staple is about 50 percent more expensive in its dearest week than in its cheapest. Some move far more: apples and olive oil have both more than doubled between their low and high weeks, and coffee has run from about $8.49 to $16.98 for a comparable pack.
Is it better to shop at a cheaper store or wait for a sale?
For most staples, waiting for the sale wins. The gap between the cheapest and most expensive store on a given week is usually a few dollars on a full basket, while a single staple can swing 50 to 100 percent between its cheap and expensive weeks. Timing the item beats switching the store, which is why a stocked pantry saves more than loyalty to one chain.
Which grocery staples change price the most?
Produce and pantry items with long shelf lives move most, because retailers use them as promotional levers. Apples, olive oil, coffee, chicken breast and pasta all show swings of 75 percent or more between their cheapest and dearest weeks in our data.
Which grocery staples are most stable in price?
Salmon is the steadiest item we track, moving only about 10 percent between its cheapest and dearest week. Milk, ground beef and potatoes are also relatively stable at roughly 25 percent, and in milk's case that is expected because Canadian dairy is supply managed, so the underlying farm gate price is regulated rather than set by the market.
Are these shelf prices or sale prices?
These are advertised flyer prices, which is what retailers publish each week. They are not shelf prices and not what any individual paid at checkout. That distinction matters: the swing we measure is largely the depth of promotion, which is exactly the thing a shopper can time.
How should I use this to save money on groceries?
Buy the high-swing items only when they are near their low, and buy enough to last until the next promotion. Coffee, olive oil, pasta and rice all store for months, so a cheap week is worth stocking up on. Do not bother timing the stable items like salmon or milk, because the saving is not there.
When do grocery flyers come out in Canada?
Most major Canadian grocery chains start their new flyer week on Thursday, which is why prices reset mid week rather than on the weekend. Practically, that means Thursday and Friday are when a staple is most likely to be sitting at a new low, and the last day or two of a flyer cycle is when the previous week's deals expire.
How is this different from the official inflation rate?
Statistics Canada's Consumer Price Index measures what a fixed basket costs at the till, monthly, and is designed to show the underlying trend. This measures what retailers advertise in their weekly flyers, which moves far more because promotional depth changes week to week. CPI tells you whether groceries are getting more expensive over the year; this tells you whether to buy chicken this week or next.
Where does this data come from?
CartIQ reads the flyer feeds for more than 30 Canadian grocery chains twice a week and stores every matching item with its price, store, region and capture date. This article is generated from that database and updates itself as new weeks are recorded.
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Check this week's deals →Figures are median advertised prices from Canadian retailer flyers, generated live from CartIQ's price database. They are not shelf prices and vary by location and week. CartIQ is not affiliated with any retailer named on this page.